High Probability Advisors, LLC
Long book
$781.4M
Q1 2026
Positions
67
Top-10 weight
65%
concentration
Last quarter
+11.3%
SPY +14.8%
Turnover
18%
of book per quarter
Strategy in plain words
auto-generated from filingsHigh Probability Advisors, LLC is a wealth-management firm allocating client money, running a $781.4M US long book across 67 positions.
The portfolio is concentrated: the top 10 names carry 65% of the portfolio. Turnover is modest: positions are typically held for years. Current anchor positions: GOLDMAN ACTIVEBETA US LC ETF, ISHARES MSCI USA MOMENTUM FA, DIMENSIONAL US HIGH PROFI ET, ISHRS US E F R A ETF-USD INC, GOLDMAN SACHS ACTIVEBETA INT.
Over the last 9 quarters its long book ran on average 0.9pp per quarter behind the S&P 500, beating the index in 3 of 9 quarters. Its holdings are mechanical (indexing / client flows), so position changes carry no stock-picking signal.
Implied long-book return vs S&P 500
methodology: positions priced quarterly, no shorts/options Fund long book S&P 500
Q1 2024
+1.2%
Q2 2024
+6.1%
Q3 2024
-1.4%
Q4 2024
+0.0%
Q1 2025
+8.1%
Q2 2025
+5.7%
Q3 2025
+1.8%
Q4 2025
-1.2%
Q1 2026
+11.3%
Sector allocation
Technology 61%
Financials 11%
Consumer discretionary 10%
Industrials 8%
Services media 4%
Healthcare 4%
Other 2%
Long book by quarter
What does High Probability own?
Q1 2026 13F| Company | Sector | Shares | Value | % of book | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL APPLE INC | Technology | 4.8K | $1.2M | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | Technology | 2.3K | $853K | 0.1% | +22.6% |
| GOOGL ALPHABET INC-CL A | Technology | 2.2K | $640K | 0.1% | +14.4% |
| TT TRANE TECHNOLOGIES PLC | Technology | 1.4K | $583K | 0.1% | +2.9% |
| ETN EATON CORP PLC | Industrials | 1.3K | $479K | 0.1% | +9.1% |
| HIG HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP INC | Financials | 2.8K | $372K | 0.0% | Held |
| HD HOME DEPOT INC | Consumer discretionary | 1.0K | $332K | 0.0% | +11.5% |
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | Technology | 1.6K | $286K | 0.0% | New |
| JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | Financials | 900 | $265K | 0.0% | +21.1% |
| V VISA INC-CLASS A SHARES | Services media | 861 | $260K | 0.0% | +18.4% |
| AMZN AMAZON.COM INC | Consumer discretionary | 1.1K | $228K | 0.0% | New |
| ABBV ABBVIE INC | Healthcare | 989 | $215K | 0.0% | +11.5% |
| KODK EASTMAN KODAK CO | Other | 11.2K | $101K | 0.0% | Held |
13F filing history
| Period | Form | Filed | Entries | Reported value | Flags | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 13F-HR | Apr 13, 2026 | 67 | $781.4M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q4 2025 | 13F-HR | Jan 29, 2026 | 73 | $749.9M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q3 2025 | 13F-HR | Oct 14, 2025 | 65 | $729.3M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q2 2025 | 13F-HR | Jul 9, 2025 | 60 | $668.7M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q1 2025 | 13F-HR | Apr 16, 2025 | 55 | $599.6M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q4 2024 | 13F-HR | Jan 17, 2025 | 55 | $557.8M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q3 2024 | 13F-HR | Nov 12, 2024 | 57 | $587.2M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q2 2024 | 13F-HR | Nov 14, 2024 | 54 | $551.5M | canonical | SEC ↗ |
| Q1 2024 | 13F-HR | Nov 14, 2024 | 56 | $539.1M | canonical | SEC ↗ |